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The supply in the rental market of Moscow housing in the summer increased by 20-25%, and prices fell against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic. Nonresidents who left during the lockdown are in no hurry to return to the capital.
“The Moscow rental market is overstocked today,” says Elena Mishchenko, head of the city real estate department at NDV - Real Estate Supermarket, in a comment for Forbes. According to her, the volume of supply in the capital over the summer increased by 20%, and in the least demanded residential areas - by 25%.
As noted by all experts interviewed by Forbes, renting an apartment is now extremely difficult and the bulk of the supply is idle. The flow of new tenants in 2020 is significantly poorer than the average in previous years.
According to Alexei Popov, head of the CIAN analytical center, in Moscow, the supply on the long-term rental market has increased by about a quarter during the pandemic.
First, many nonresidents did not return to the capital, who left and continue to work remotely, he explains. Secondly, the apartments are exhibited by rentiers who previously specialized in daily rentals, but in the absence of tourists moved to the segment of long-term rental housing.
“According to our calculations, the number of requests“ to hand over ”has grown by one and a half times to the indicators of the pandemic and to the indicators of the previous year. Now it is absolutely certain that the client's market is when he can choose the most interesting offer, ”notes Maria Zhukova, managing director of the network of offices of the Miel agency.
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“Given the generally unhappy situation on the rental market, there is no significant price reduction,” says Elena Mishchenko. - As it was during the pandemic, a decrease of 20-25% from the usual rate, so the market did not win back. But it does not fall further either. "
Maria Zhukova from "Miel" adds that "if the owner is a rentier who owns five apartments, then he is ready to make a certain reduction, but there are not many of them." “And if a person has one apartment to rent and he lives on this income, then, oddly enough, he will prefer not to rent an apartment at all below a certain psychological threshold,” the expert adds. According to her, this behavior of the owners was typical for the crises of both 2009 and 2015.
According to Avito-Nedvizhimost, in the period from March to July, the average cost of short-term rent of apartments in the country as a whole increased by 6.1% and amounted to 1,557 rubles per day, but at the beginning of August a year ago the price was 1.7% higher. and was equal to 1584 rubles. In March and April 2020, the indicator fell and reached its lowest point in May (1,340 rubles), however, as the restrictions associated with the pandemic eased and the market recovered, it began to grow again.
In the segment of long-term rent in Russia as a whole, rental housing in July can cost 17,168 rubles a month, which is 3.1% lower than in March, and 0.6% lower than last year's July. In Moscow, the average rental price today is 40,000 rubles. Since March, the indicator has decreased by 11.1%, but the decline has been leveled off by the previous growth, therefore, there have been no changes in annual terms: in July 2019, rent would have cost an average of 40,000 rubles per month.
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“Owners are more inert than the market as a whole, many are in no hurry and do not want to rent below a certain price. Each owner has a certain psychological threshold, a threshold of expectations, below which they simply will not get involved with rent, clients, all this, ”says Maria Zhukova.
Demand is growing
"With the abolition of self-isolation, the demand for rental housing has grown significantly, but it is too early to talk about a full recovery of the market," warns Nikita Komarov, co-founder and product director of the PIK-Arenda service. According to Maria Zhukova from Miel, July “is somewhat better in terms of requests from potential tenants than the first month of summer, but such requests are 35% less” than in July 2019.
Aggregators record an increase in the activity of housing tenants. Analysts of Avito-Nedvizhimost note a steady increase in demand over the past two summer months. According to Artem Kromochkin, head of short-term service lease, in Moscow and St. Petersburg in July, the growth rates were 4.2% and 7.7%, respectively, compared to June. Year-on-year interest in long-term rental housing has also grown - by 52.6% in the capital and 16.5% in St. Petersburg.
According to CIAN, in June-July, demand in the Moscow rental market compared to the same period in 2019 turned out to be 7% higher, in St. Petersburg - by 48%.
However, in Moscow, the main increase in demand, says Alexei Popov, head of the CIAN analytical center, was still observed not in the summer of 2020, but in May, when, due to price reductions due to the pandemic, many were interested in moving to a larger apartment or were forced to change their place of residence. due to a sharp decline in income. “This deferred demand and tenant activity declined by July, when the majority resolved housing issues. As a result
tate, demand in Moscow is approximately at the same level as a year ago, ”the expert concludes.
According to Avito-Nedvizhimost, demand for daily rent is recovering more actively, which is stimulated by the onset of the tourist season. “In the last four weeks alone, demand in Moscow grew by 25%, while in St. Petersburg it increased by 3.2 times. In Russia as a whole, the indicators of the fourth week of July have surpassed the same period of the previous month by 69.2%, ”Artem Kromochkin cites the data.
The demand for multi-room apartments has become an unusual trend for the market.
According to Elena Mishchenko from NDV, now they are more willing to rent two- and three-room options on the outskirts of Moscow than one-room apartments closer to the center.
Alexey Popov notes the emergence of yet another new consumer habit. According to him, more and more tenants are thinking about specifying as one of the clauses of the agreement the possibility of sublease - the addition of another tenant in case, for example, a sharp drop in income.
One-room apartments are losing popularity
Clients began to pay more attention to the isolation of premises - for remote operation, experts say.
But the demand in the suburban real estate market, according to Forbes interlocutors, was exhausted by August. “In July, the number of applications for renting a country house decreased by 30% compared to July last year. This is due to the unprecedented excitement at the “fence”, which we saw in the spring: everyone who wanted to rent a house has already done it, the demand is satisfied, ”says Maria Zhukova.
Despite the recovery in potential demand and the approaching business season, experts predict a full recovery of the market only next year. “We do not expect the rental market to return to pre-crisis price indicators in the fall. The segment will most likely recover only in the first half of 2021, ”says Aleksey Popov. According to him, in the fall the market will support the beginning of the academic year and the business period in general: “Moscow is still a center of attraction for labor resources, and with a decrease in the population's ability to pay and an increase in unemployment in Russia, I believe that moving to the capital will remain a relevant scenario for many Russians ".
At the end of August - September, one should expect "an increase in demand for long-term rent and, at the same time, prices," the expert adds.
According to Elena Mishchenko, “there is a possibility that people will be careful and wait for September 20”. “This date has been repeatedly named to us as a possible beginning of the second stage of self-isolation. But if we are not all sent home again, then tenants will rush to Moscow. This will not affect prices much. Growth is possible, most likely after the New Year, ”she sums up.